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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
23–8 on winners
spread MAE 9.2
40 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
San Diego
@
UC Irvine
|
+2.2 | 136.7 | 53% | 53–85 | ✓ |
Cleveland State
@
Purdue Fort Wayne
|
— | — | — | 63–61 | — |
Georgia Southern
@
Florida International
|
+12.0 | 149.0 | 79% | 103–99 | ✗ |
Iona
@
Rider
|
-2.3 | 132.9 | 33% | 72–64 | ✓ |
Oakland
@
UIC
|
+9.8 | 145.3 | 84% | 72–74 | ✓ |
Arizona
@
Stanford
|
+2.0 | 137.8 | 64% | 75–78 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
Louisiana
|
— | — | — | 65–75 | — |
Cincinnati
@
Georgia
|
+7.7 | 142.5 | 81% | 68–83 | ✓ |
Northwestern State
@
Missouri State
|
— | — | — | 67–94 | — |
Radford
@
Vanderbilt
|
+9.3 | 124.1 | 81% | 50–59 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Bradley
|
+11.3 | 135.9 | 83% | 68–69 | ✓ |
Colorado State
@
Saint Mary's
|
— | — | — | 33–53 | — |
Saint Joseph's
@
Villanova
|
+16.1 | 155.9 | 88% | 68–88 | ✓ |
UCF
@
Florida State
|
+13.1 | 139.0 | 78% | 86–74 | ✗ |
Cal Poly
@
Loyola Marymount
|
+14.1 | 137.1 | 85% | 52–76 | ✓ |
Creighton
@
UConn
|
+2.1 | 148.2 | 56% | 76–74 | ✗ |
Illinois
@
Rutgers
|
+0.4 | 155.1 | 60% | 88–91 | ✓ |
Jackson State
@
Iowa State
|
+10.0 | 136.9 | 86% | 45–60 | ✓ |
Oklahoma State
@
Texas
|
+7.5 | 141.4 | 77% | 74–77 | ✓ |
Northeastern
@
Old Dominion
|
+3.1 | 139.7 | 70% | 62–66 | ✓ |
Robert Morris
@
Marshall
|
— | — | — | 71–85 | — |
Marist
@
Manhattan
|
-7.8 | 129.7 | 22% | 72–67 | ✓ |
Oral Roberts
@
Arkansas
|
+19.2 | 158.1 | 90% | 76–87 | ✓ |
Milwaukee
@
Green Bay
|
-6.1 | 142.3 | 26% | 74–62 | ✓ |
Wright State
@
Detroit Mercy
|
-6.2 | 150.4 | 28% | 85–72 | ✓ |
Stony Brook
@
Binghamton
|
-1.1 | 137.0 | 32% | 80–70 | ✓ |
UMBC
@
UAlbany
|
— | — | — | 65–60 | — |
Maine
@
Hartford
|
— | — | — | 50–65 | — |
Marquette
@
Xavier
|
+4.8 | 145.3 | 69% | 88–91 | ✓ |
Chicago State
@
Drake
|
+23.5 | 144.6 | 90% | 67–111 | ✓ |
Youngstown State
@
Northern Kentucky
|
+4.3 | 137.3 | 60% | 70–60 | ✗ |
Weber State
@
Portland State
|
-9.6 | 145.4 | 36% | 72–74 | ✗ |
Alcorn State
@
Houston
|
— | — | — | 55–88 | — |
Providence
@
Seton Hall
|
+7.0 | 143.7 | 78% | 80–77 | ✗ |
|
Cleveland State
@
Purdue Fort Wayne
|
— | — | — | 89–80 | — |
|
Oakland
@
UIC
|
+9.7 | 143.4 | 84% | 73–90 | ✓ |
Western Illinois
@
UT Martin
|
+9.0 | 153.9 | 66% | 81–63 | ✗ |
Air Force
@
Nevada
|
+10.5 | 127.4 | 83% | 68–66 | ✗ |
Delaware State
@
Georgia Tech
|
+21.6 | 159.7 | 90% | 69–97 | ✓ |
Georgetown
@
St. John's
|
+3.2 | 157.2 | 71% | 83–94 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.