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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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23–12 on winners spread MAE 9.0 35 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Michigan @ Penn State -20.1 157.3 13% 74–72 ✓
Duke @ Louisville +2.7 158.2 57% 84–73 ✗
Georgia @ Florida +2.9 165.9 57% 77–92 ✓
Cincinnati @ West Virginia +3.1 131.1 59% 60–62 ✓
St. John's @ Butler +2.1 152.9 64% 84–70 ✗
Syracuse @ Georgia Tech +1.1 140.0 50% 82–72 ✗
Western Michigan @ Miami (OH) +15.2 154.5 87% 76–87 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Ball State -4.1 132.7 29% 74–52 ✓
Central Michigan @ Akron +23.3 158.1 91% 69–82 ✓
Bowling Green @ Kent State -1.6 153.7 47% 93–96 ✗
South Carolina @ LSU +11.5 149.4 83% 78–68 ✗
Iowa @ Minnesota -6.8 131.3 19% 67–70 ✗
UCF @ Oklahoma State +0.4 160.3 54% 76–87 ✓
George Washington @ Dayton +2.1 149.6 60% 72–79 ✓
Georgetown @ DePaul +4.4 144.0 68% 50–56 ✓
Toledo @ Northern Illinois -4.3 149.6 33% 75–61 ✓
Lindenwood @ SIU Edwardsville -0.4 139.3 44% 62–66 ✗
Texas Tech @ Houston +5.0 144.4 66% 65–69 ✓
Texas @ Tennessee +10.6 153.2 83% 71–85 ✓
TCU @ Kansas +8.6 136.1 80% 100–104 ✓
New Mexico @ Colorado State +0.7 140.4 49% 80–70 ✗
UCLA @ Wisconsin +1.6 148.8 60% 72–80 ✓
NC State @ Boston College -10.9 138.3 16% 79–71 ✓
Utah State @ Air Force -19.6 134.8 12% 99–62 ✓
Texas A&M @ Auburn +2.5 168.5 72% 90–88 ✗
UNLV @ Wyoming +9.9 149.0 82% 66–98 ✓
Fresno State @ San José State +1.1 143.0 53% 70–55 ✗
San Diego State @ Nevada +2.9 146.7 68% 73–68 ✗
Furman @ Chattanooga -4.4 142.2 34% 78–67 ✓
Holy Cross @ Lehigh +1.5 133.9 52% 58–66 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Army +5.8 146.8 68% 84–76 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ Wofford +6.9 148.5 76% 85–97 ✓
Indiana @ Maryland -11.3 145.7 18% 84–66 ✓
Longwood @ UNC Asheville +3.7 144.1 61% 61–72 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Winthrop +3.3 158.4 67% 77–81 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.