We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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25–8 on winners spread MAE 8.9 33 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Oklahoma State @ Kansas State +6.8 144.2 80% 57–65 ✓
Michigan State @ Wisconsin +3.9 133.0 59% 69–65 ✗
Belmont @ Valparaiso -6.7 143.7 24% 74–59 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame +0.6 138.8 54% 72–73 ✓
South Carolina @ Kentucky +15.0 140.8 88% 71–68 ✗
Florida @ LSU +0.6 137.0 54% 67–56 ✗
VCU @ Loyola Chicago -5.1 143.6 28% 78–64 ✓
Dayton @ Fordham -4.3 133.0 29% 82–58 ✓
Toledo @ Kent State +8.4 151.5 80% 63–75 ✓
Akron @ Bowling Green -1.4 140.8 42% 74–70 ✓
Buffalo @ Miami (OH) -2.2 155.5 46% 80–91 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ Western Michigan +1.6 149.2 59% 79–85 ✓
Ball State @ Ohio +0.9 149.0 49% 71–76 ✓
Hartford @ St. Francis Brooklyn +9.4 129.7 86% 73–78 ✓
Texas Tech @ Iowa State +6.4 132.6 76% 50–84 ✓
Temple @ Tulsa -4.0 144.5 38% 76–72 ✓
Drake @ UIC -7.6 134.6 24% 76–71 ✓
Murray State @ Northern Iowa +2.4 136.9 61% 67–75 ✓
Central Michigan @ Northern Illinois +0.2 137.6 46% 54–73 ✓
Seton Hall @ Georgetown -9.8 144.2 19% 66–51 ✓
Oklahoma @ Kansas +10.5 137.3 84% 75–79 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Tennessee +18.7 136.4 90% 68–77 ✓
North Carolina @ Virginia +4.7 141.9 73% 58–65 ✓
Auburn @ Ole Miss -1.6 131.4 46% 82–73 ✓
Villanova @ DePaul -2.9 144.5 38% 65–75 ✗
Illinois @ Nebraska -2.1 137.0 41% 76–50 ✓
Air Force @ Colorado State +5.9 139.5 74% 85–74 ✗
Fresno State @ San José State +5.7 128.6 70% 64–74 ✓
Wyoming @ Utah State +13.1 148.8 86% 63–83 ✓
Nevada @ San Diego State +5.9 137.8 75% 65–74 ✓
American University @ Army -1.0 140.8 42% 60–72 ✗
Vermont @ UMass Lowell +4.1 141.9 68% 65–80 ✓
Mississippi State @ Georgia -0.7 130.9 48% 50–58 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.