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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
32–5 on winners
spread MAE 7.4
37 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vanderbilt
@
Florida
|
+13.2 | 157.0 | 89% | 75–86 | ✓ |
Purdue
@
Iowa
|
-6.4 | 159.5 | 28% | 90–81 | ✓ |
Kentucky
@
Ole Miss
|
+1.9 | 161.0 | 57% | 84–98 | ✓ |
Wichita State
@
Charlotte
|
-2.6 | 148.7 | 41% | 66–58 | ✓ |
Notre Dame
@
Florida State
|
+3.3 | 146.8 | 62% | 60–67 | ✓ |
Saint Louis
@
Massachusetts
|
-1.0 | 152.7 | 46% | 73–71 | ✓ |
La Salle
@
VCU
|
+17.8 | 142.5 | 95% | 66–96 | ✓ |
Davidson
@
Dayton
|
+7.7 | 146.9 | 76% | 63–69 | ✓ |
Drake
@
Murray State
|
-4.9 | 126.1 | 33% | 55–45 | ✓ |
Minnesota
@
Penn State
|
+10.0 | 143.6 | 82% | 69–61 | ✗ |
Western Michigan
@
Ohio
|
+11.2 | 152.7 | 85% | 69–94 | ✓ |
Northern Illinois
@
Bowling Green
|
+9.2 | 149.8 | 80% | 77–84 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Central Michigan
|
+0.3 | 146.2 | 51% | 76–70 | ✗ |
Buffalo
@
Toledo
|
+14.2 | 163.9 | 90% | 74–87 | ✓ |
Ball State
@
Akron
|
+15.4 | 159.8 | 92% | 73–81 | ✓ |
Oklahoma State
@
Houston
|
+26.5 | 134.7 | 99% | 63–72 | ✓ |
Utah State
@
Wyoming
|
-9.3 | 142.6 | 20% | 71–67 | ✓ |
Georgetown
@
Xavier
|
+8.5 | 140.3 | 78% | 69–74 | ✓ |
Eastern Illinois
@
SIU Edwardsville
|
+9.1 | 132.3 | 80% | 41–66 | ✓ |
Oklahoma
@
Auburn
|
+17.1 | 157.3 | 94% | 70–98 | ✓ |
Baylor
@
Texas Tech
|
+5.7 | 150.8 | 70% | 59–73 | ✓ |
Indiana
@
Wisconsin
|
+10.4 | 153.7 | 83% | 64–76 | ✓ |
Georgia Tech
@
Clemson
|
+14.3 | 142.2 | 90% | 89–86 | ✗ |
St. Bonaventure
@
Loyola Chicago
|
-2.7 | 133.6 | 40% | 53–77 | ✗ |
Nevada
@
Air Force
|
-10.3 | 130.6 | 17% | 74–60 | ✓ |
USC
@
Northwestern
|
+4.6 | 142.1 | 66% | 75–77 | ✓ |
Michigan State
@
UCLA
|
+2.3 | 139.2 | 58% | 61–63 | ✓ |
Kansas State
@
Arizona State
|
+5.0 | 142.5 | 67% | 71–70 | ✗ |
San José State
@
Fresno State
|
-3.0 | 153.8 | 39% | 94–91 | ✓ |
Arizona
@
BYU
|
-0.8 | 157.8 | 47% | 85–74 | ✓ |
Boise State
@
UNLV
|
-4.3 | 141.9 | 35% | 71–62 | ✓ |
Holy Cross
@
Army
|
+4.4 | 148.4 | 66% | 65–68 | ✓ |
East Tennessee State
@
VMI
|
-5.8 | 142.8 | 30% | 62–55 | ✓ |
Oregon
@
Michigan
|
+8.4 | 154.7 | 78% | 76–80 | ✓ |
Butler
@
Seton Hall
|
-5.4 | 135.7 | 31% | 84–54 | ✓ |
Southern Miss
@
App State
|
+10.6 | 134.5 | 83% | 58–60 | ✓ |
Milwaukee
@
IU Indianapolis
|
-8.8 | 151.1 | 21% | 84–80 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.