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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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14–9 on winners spread MAE 9.4 23 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Virginia @ Pittsburgh	+13.7	132.5	89%	73–57	✗
North Carolina Central @ Norfolk State	+12.2	147.5	87%	78–81	✓
Alabama State @ Florida A&M	+0.0	149.2	50%	67–66	✗
Alabama A&M @ Bethune-Cookman	+14.8	145.9	91%	75–89	✓
Incarnate Word @ McNeese	+17.2	140.9	94%	65–67	✓
Lamar @ SE Louisiana	+2.9	133.4	60%	79–81	✓
Jackson State @ Southern	+8.6	138.0	78%	89–91	✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Northwestern State	+0.5	142.8	52%	63–79	✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ East Texas A&M	-8.0	144.9	23%	78–66	✓
Stephen F. Austin @ New Orleans	-2.9	136.3	39%	88–85	✓
Houston Christian @ Nicholls	+8.2	142.0	77%	67–75	✓
South Carolina State @ Howard	-0.6	156.9	48%	89–66	✓
Morgan State @ Delaware State	+7.9	162.1	76%	82–84	✓
Coppin State @ Maryland Eastern Shore	+5.2	138.7	68%	62–57	✗
Charleston @ William & Mary	-1.5	169.4	45%	75–90	✗
Iowa State @ Kansas	+3.2	147.5	62%	52–69	✓
Alcorn State @ Grambling	+4.3	131.3	65%	60–53	✗
Northern Arizona @ Weber State	-0.5	143.7	48%	73–77	✗
Northern Colorado @ Idaho State	+0.2	152.3	51%	86–72	✗
North Texas @ UAB	-2.8	140.7	40%	61–64	✗
Marquette @ St. John's	+3.1	147.0	61%	64–70	✓
Texas Southern @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-11.2	165.0	15%	68–69	✗
Kent State @ Eastern Michigan	-6.6	134.4	28%	70–49	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.