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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
28–11 on winners
spread MAE 9.8
39 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tennessee
@
Florida
|
-1.0 | 143.5 | 46% | 43–73 | ✗ |
Pittsburgh
@
Duke
|
+13.0 | 142.1 | 88% | 47–76 | ✓ |
Kentucky
@
Georgia
|
-0.5 | 158.2 | 48% | 69–82 | ✗ |
Arizona
@
West Virginia
|
+0.3 | 145.7 | 51% | 75–56 | ✗ |
Georgia Tech
@
Syracuse
|
+1.6 | 159.1 | 56% | 55–62 | ✓ |
Clemson
@
Louisville
|
+3.4 | 144.4 | 62% | 64–74 | ✓ |
Ohio
@
Buffalo
|
-6.1 | 158.4 | 29% | 88–79 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Ball State
|
+1.0 | 148.2 | 53% | 80–72 | ✗ |
Kent State
@
Northern Illinois
|
-12.6 | 128.6 | 13% | 68–50 | ✓ |
Eastern Michigan
@
Toledo
|
+11.9 | 157.8 | 86% | 87–90 | ✓ |
Central Michigan
@
Akron
|
+8.4 | 147.4 | 78% | 71–87 | ✓ |
Bowling Green
@
Western Michigan
|
+4.3 | 148.6 | 65% | 83–79 | ✗ |
Tulane
@
UAB
|
+4.6 | 158.4 | 66% | 69–81 | ✓ |
Utah
@
Iowa State
|
+16.5 | 155.3 | 93% | 59–82 | ✓ |
Georgetown
@
Marquette
|
+15.0 | 143.3 | 91% | 66–74 | ✓ |
Cincinnati
@
Baylor
|
+5.0 | 140.7 | 67% | 48–68 | ✓ |
Kansas State
@
Oklahoma State
|
+1.4 | 149.9 | 55% | 66–79 | ✓ |
Tulsa
@
UTSA
|
+9.3 | 156.3 | 80% | 82–77 | ✗ |
UIC
@
Missouri State
|
+0.8 | 150.7 | 53% | 80–63 | ✗ |
Nebraska
@
Iowa
|
+0.7 | 157.0 | 53% | 87–97 | ✓ |
SIU Edwardsville
@
Eastern Illinois
|
-2.3 | 135.1 | 42% | 60–57 | ✓ |
Auburn
@
Texas
|
-10.4 | 153.9 | 17% | 87–82 | ✓ |
Mississippi State
@
Vanderbilt
|
+0.4 | 161.7 | 52% | 76–64 | ✗ |
Fresno State
@
Colorado State
|
+14.6 | 151.3 | 91% | 64–91 | ✓ |
Texas Tech
@
BYU
|
-0.9 | 153.7 | 47% | 72–67 | ✓ |
SMU
@
North Carolina
|
+5.7 | 175.6 | 70% | 67–82 | ✓ |
LSU
@
Missouri
|
+7.5 | 153.2 | 75% | 67–83 | ✓ |
Michigan
@
UCLA
|
+3.9 | 138.3 | 64% | 94–75 | ✗ |
Utah State
@
San José State
|
-11.2 | 150.4 | 15% | 85–78 | ✓ |
New Mexico
@
Wyoming
|
-3.9 | 154.2 | 36% | 61–53 | ✓ |
UNLV
@
Boise State
|
+9.1 | 142.3 | 80% | 59–81 | ✓ |
Loyola Marymount
@
Saint Mary's
|
+13.3 | 132.7 | 89% | 56–81 | ✓ |
Loyola Maryland
@
Army
|
+2.0 | 152.9 | 57% | 72–74 | ✓ |
Navy
@
Holy Cross
|
+5.3 | 148.1 | 69% | 59–70 | ✓ |
UConn
@
Villanova
|
+0.7 | 155.8 | 52% | 66–68 | ✓ |
Loyola Chicago
@
La Salle
|
+4.4 | 147.7 | 66% | 79–68 | ✗ |
DePaul
@
Seton Hall
|
-1.4 | 130.4 | 45% | 80–85 | ✗ |
Coastal Carolina
@
App State
|
+6.7 | 122.6 | 73% | 51–74 | ✓ |
Northern Kentucky
@
Youngstown State
|
+4.2 | 132.5 | 65% | 61–72 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.