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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
13–4 on winners
spread MAE 10.1
17 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Alabama State
|
+23.0 | 174.4 | 98% | 91–93 | ✓ |
South Florida
@
Wichita State
|
+10.4 | 155.8 | 83% | 91–72 | ✗ |
Wisconsin
@
Rutgers
|
-4.0 | 163.2 | 36% | 75–63 | ✓ |
UT Rio Grande Valley
@
SE Louisiana
|
+1.2 | 146.7 | 54% | 75–79 | ✓ |
Nicholls
@
East Texas A&M
|
-2.8 | 141.6 | 40% | 83–61 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
New Orleans
|
-10.0 | 156.7 | 18% | 97–83 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
Northwestern State
|
-6.8 | 127.8 | 27% | 92–69 | ✓ |
Houston Christian
@
Stephen F. Austin
|
+9.8 | 117.4 | 81% | 83–73 | ✗ |
South Carolina State
@
Coppin State
|
-12.0 | 131.6 | 14% | 85–77 | ✓ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Alabama A&M
|
+17.9 | 141.9 | 95% | 67–79 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
Lamar
|
+5.4 | 136.1 | 69% | 58–72 | ✓ |
Southern
@
Prairie View A&M
|
-0.3 | 154.4 | 49% | 84–80 | ✓ |
TCU
@
Houston
|
+20.7 | 122.3 | 97% | 46–65 | ✓ |
Grambling
@
Texas Southern
|
+2.8 | 139.9 | 60% | 66–71 | ✓ |
Ohio State
@
Minnesota
|
-9.9 | 135.0 | 18% | 89–88 | ✓ |
North Carolina Central
@
Morgan State
|
-1.7 | 158.9 | 44% | 98–102 | ✗ |
St. John's
@
Xavier
|
+0.8 | 155.4 | 53% | 82–72 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.