Betting Lines
| Spread | RGV -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | SELA +145 RGV -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SELA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SELA +4 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | SELA -1.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SELA -1.3 (+2.7) | 145.5 (+8.5) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SELA -0.1 (+3.9) | 141.7 (+12.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SELA -0.4 (+3.6) | 142.9 (+11.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RGV -0.2 (+4.2) | 142.5 (+11.5) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | RGV 96 – 75 SELA |
| Jan 20, 2026 | RGV 68 – 65 SELA |
| Mar 4, 2025 | RGV 77 – 76 SELA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SELA | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 8-12 |
| Home | 8-4 | 12-4 |
| Away | 9-8 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#215) | 0.2 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#297) | 0.36 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.87 (#293) | -0.09 (#170) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#301) | 0.516 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SELA | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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