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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
26–11 on winners
spread MAE 8.4
37 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-13.4 | 138.2 | 15% | 100–56 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.9 | 145.7 | 85% | 68–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.2 | 152.1 | 76% | 61–90 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.9 | 151.4 | 36% | 62–77 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.9 | 140.1 | 56% | 84–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.1 | 145.7 | 79% | 72–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.5 | 149.6 | 68% | 76–60 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.5 | 145.7 | 85% | 88–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.1 | 142.8 | 86% | 69–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.5 | 139.4 | 32% | 73–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.9 | 155.9 | 84% | 81–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.9 | 155.6 | 89% | 85–99 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.1 | 137.1 | 86% | 59–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.1 | 153.9 | 79% | 88–97 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.4 | 151.1 | 19% | 72–63 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.6 | 140.7 | 55% | 76–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.0 | 143.4 | 79% | 63–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.2 | 140.7 | 68% | 86–93 | ✓ |
|
|
+19.3 | 144.9 | 90% | 67–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.7 | 153.3 | 84% | 84–89 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.3 | 155.6 | 24% | 87–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-12.8 | 141.3 | 13% | 75–59 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.2 | 141.6 | 81% | 70–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.7 | 151.1 | 76% | 78–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.5 | 145.5 | 81% | 62–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.7 | 150.3 | 50% | 83–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.7 | 135.2 | 22% | 86–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.7 | 159.9 | 39% | 79–91 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.0 | 143.0 | 25% | 69–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.5 | 159.6 | 82% | 97–84 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.9 | 145.9 | 57% | 60–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.0 | 152.9 | 77% | 62–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.2 | 140.4 | 62% | 75–73 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.3 | 147.1 | 34% | 67–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.5 | 143.9 | 60% | 90–83 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.3 | 140.6 | 88% | 51–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.9 | 163.3 | 41% | 86–74 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.