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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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26–7 on winners spread MAE 8.2 33 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Purdue @ Maryland	-7.0	142.1	26%	67–53	✓
Norfolk State @ Tennessee	+18.1	140.7	90%	50–87	✓
North Carolina @ Pittsburgh	+2.7	149.7	59%	70–57	✗
East Carolina @ Florida Atlantic	+18.8	146.2	90%	64–79	✓
Iowa @ Wisconsin	+7.7	149.1	77%	72–83	✓
Wake Forest @ Boston College	+1.3	150.5	43%	84–78	✗
Creighton @ Georgetown	-11.6	147.0	16%	77–60	✓
Ball State @ Kent State	+10.3	142.3	83%	69–82	✓
Buffalo @ Central Michigan	+1.3	136.6	48%	76–64	✗
Eastern Michigan @ Bowling Green	+9.0	141.0	84%	90–92	✓
Western Michigan @ Miami (OH)	+4.2	145.7	67%	83–74	✗
Toledo @ Ohio	+0.9	155.0	58%	86–77	✗
UAlbany @ Harvard	+7.3	148.4	81%	71–76	✓
Vermont @ Brown	-3.2	135.5	34%	71–70	✓
Cornell @ Baylor	+15.0	158.4	87%	79–98	✓
UIC @ Murray State	-1.0	136.8	54%	73–85	✗
Belmont @ Southern Illinois	+8.2	145.6	78%	63–73	✓
Chicago State @ Kansas State	+19.0	138.3	89%	55–62	✓
Akron @ Northern Illinois	-4.1	143.9	35%	73–51	✓
San José State @ Wyoming	+1.9	143.4	67%	73–75	✓
Butler @ St. John's	+5.5	150.8	75%	70–86	✓
Northwestern @ Illinois	+10.8	143.1	81%	66–96	✓
Syracuse @ Duke	+11.7	150.7	85%	66–86	✓
Pennsylvania @ Auburn	+16.9	152.2	90%	68–88	✓
Charlotte @ SMU	+8.3	135.0	79%	54–66	✓
UAB @ UTSA	-1.5	158.1	32%	78–76	✓
Illinois State @ Drake	+13.9	138.1	88%	71–88	✓
New Mexico @ Colorado State	+4.0	150.8	70%	68–76	✓
Yale @ Howard	-2.9	143.8	34%	86–78	✓
South Carolina Upstate @ UNC Asheville	+6.6	144.9	80%	67–95	✓
Seton Hall @ Providence	+6.2	141.0	74%	61–57	✗
Longwood @ Winthrop	+0.2	141.0	57%	60–68	✓
George Mason @ La Salle	-3.4	141.4	37%	77–62	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.