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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
22–13 on winners
spread MAE 12.2
35 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+2.2 | 141.0 | 52% | 60–59 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.6 | 132.9 | 83% | 55–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.1 | 129.9 | 80% | 60–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 139.0 | 59% | 70–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.4 | 144.8 | 80% | 68–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.8 | 134.4 | 50% | 70–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.5 | 151.2 | 78% | 59–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.2 | 135.8 | 71% | 80–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.9 | 130.0 | 80% | 56–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.1 | 146.6 | 61% | 60–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.6 | 146.5 | 23% | 83–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.0 | 137.1 | 72% | 52–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.4 | 129.9 | 83% | 65–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.8 | 134.1 | 88% | 50–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.2 | 140.6 | 84% | 62–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.9 | 148.5 | 83% | 40–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.9 | 131.3 | 63% | 45–62 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.3 | 146.4 | 52% | 66–83 | ✗ |
|
|
+16.1 | 144.8 | 88% | 75–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.9 | 135.5 | 86% | 68–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.3 | 132.1 | 40% | 76–73 | ✗ |
|
|
-7.1 | 130.3 | 24% | 66–55 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.1 | 150.7 | 88% | 77–104 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.1 | 149.7 | 57% | 84–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.8 | 144.5 | 57% | 83–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.0 | 141.5 | 84% | 67–62 | ✗ |
|
|
+17.1 | 141.8 | 88% | 58–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.7 | 140.7 | 88% | 66–65 | ✗ |
|
|
-12.5 | 134.3 | 17% | 52–62 | ✗ |
|
|
-6.8 | 126.3 | 27% | 52–58 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.8 | 155.5 | 86% | 64–96 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.9 | 130.1 | 24% | 58–51 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.8 | 139.3 | 33% | 75–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+24.3 | 151.9 | 91% | 73–84 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.8 | 137.1 | 36% | 70–81 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.