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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
27–7 on winners
spread MAE 8.9
34 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bellarmine
@
Kentucky
|
+20.5 | 141.4 | 89% | 41–60 | ✓ |
Maryland
@
Louisville
|
-14.0 | 136.5 | 14% | 79–54 | ✓ |
UNC Asheville
@
North Carolina Central
|
+0.1 | 147.1 | 49% | 66–79 | ✓ |
South Carolina State
@
East Carolina
|
+15.0 | 152.2 | 86% | 73–68 | ✗ |
UAlbany
@
American University
|
+9.0 | 133.9 | 79% | 62–88 | ✓ |
Old Dominion
@
Charleston
|
+6.1 | 146.2 | 71% | 60–75 | ✓ |
Massachusetts
@
South Florida
|
-1.8 | 131.3 | 43% | 73–67 | ✓ |
UC Santa Barbara
@
Duquesne
|
+5.0 | 138.4 | 69% | 61–72 | ✓ |
Brown
@
Central Connecticut
|
-0.8 | 130.3 | 34% | 59–51 | ✓ |
Charlotte
@
Davidson
|
+1.9 | 129.7 | 56% | 68–66 | ✗ |
Jackson State
@
Miami (OH)
|
+2.3 | 147.8 | 61% | 78–95 | ✓ |
Queens University
@
Bowling Green
|
-1.7 | 140.1 | 45% | 72–66 | ✓ |
VMI
@
Presbyterian
|
+2.1 | 133.9 | 56% | 57–72 | ✓ |
William & Mary
@
NC State
|
+18.9 | 148.1 | 89% | 64–85 | ✓ |
Penn State
@
Clemson
|
+0.6 | 136.5 | 55% | 94–101 | ✓ |
Syracuse
@
Illinois
|
+15.9 | 149.0 | 87% | 44–73 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
Houston
|
+22.7 | 133.1 | 90% | 52–100 | ✓ |
Weber State
@
Tarleton State
|
+11.1 | 138.8 | 87% | 65–75 | ✓ |
Idaho State
@
Kansas City
|
+5.4 | 133.6 | 55% | 75–65 | ✗ |
Montana
@
Southern Miss
|
+14.5 | 126.6 | 87% | 54–64 | ✓ |
Missouri
@
Wichita State
|
+3.7 | 147.3 | 45% | 88–84 | ✗ |
Baylor
@
Marquette
|
+3.6 | 158.9 | 62% | 70–96 | ✓ |
Cal State Northridge
@
Boise State
|
+19.2 | 128.1 | 89% | 46–55 | ✓ |
Alcorn State
@
Grand Canyon
|
+6.9 | 131.0 | 77% | 72–80 | ✓ |
Georgia Tech
@
Iowa
|
+16.0 | 149.3 | 88% | 65–81 | ✓ |
Wake Forest
@
Wisconsin
|
+5.0 | 134.0 | 63% | 78–75 | ✗ |
Virginia
@
Michigan
|
-3.6 | 136.8 | 32% | 70–68 | ✓ |
UC Irvine
@
San Diego State
|
+4.4 | 140.3 | 72% | 69–72 | ✓ |
Navy
@
Lipscomb
|
-0.6 | 140.1 | 47% | 77–82 | ✗ |
Santa Clara
@
Wyoming
|
-5.0 | 136.4 | 27% | 89–85 | ✓ |
Loyola Maryland
@
Binghamton
|
+3.9 | 133.6 | 64% | 84–70 | ✗ |
Merrimack
@
UMass Lowell
|
+18.4 | 136.0 | 90% | 51–77 | ✓ |
Temple
@
La Salle
|
-2.3 | 135.8 | 43% | 67–51 | ✓ |
Kansas State
@
Butler
|
+1.5 | 140.6 | 58% | 64–76 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.