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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
32–8 on winners
spread MAE 8.0
40 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+0.1 | 146.2 | 65% | 76–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.8 | 143.4 | 21% | 86–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.1 | 136.6 | 63% | 70–62 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.9 | 132.8 | 82% | 65–56 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.8 | 140.9 | 52% | 67–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.3 | 137.3 | 76% | 83–58 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.9 | 136.9 | 85% | 51–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.7 | 143.8 | 89% | 69–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.0 | 134.9 | 66% | 73–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 128.4 | 66% | 63–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.2 | 123.7 | 78% | 64–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.3 | 147.2 | 19% | 75–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.3 | 148.0 | 82% | 89–85 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.9 | 146.2 | 63% | 62–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.5 | 139.9 | 85% | 57–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.2 | 149.5 | 76% | 68–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.7 | 154.7 | 88% | 64–102 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.1 | 134.5 | 42% | 76–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 142.1 | 44% | 76–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.4 | 138.6 | 63% | 73–71 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.6 | 143.9 | 42% | 73–64 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.2 | 132.3 | 20% | 70–64 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.5 | 143.1 | 25% | 75–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.7 | 150.3 | 75% | 68–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.6 | 134.6 | 59% | 66–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.3 | 128.3 | 79% | 52–54 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.5 | 134.4 | 76% | 62–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.5 | 139.0 | 64% | 76–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.1 | 129.4 | 43% | 58–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.2 | 139.8 | 55% | 51–59 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.9 | 137.2 | 90% | 68–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.4 | 146.2 | 89% | 69–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.9 | 142.5 | 55% | 61–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.0 | 129.3 | 85% | 44–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.8 | 137.8 | 30% | 79–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.7 | 139.0 | 48% | 72–77 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.2 | 146.2 | 31% | 82–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.5 | 154.4 | 86% | 75–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.6 | 138.3 | 84% | 53–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.1 | 144.3 | 88% | 63–72 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.