Just tell me where it hurts and I'll tell you who to call. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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27–6 on winners spread MAE 6.3 33 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Xavier @ UConn +16.1 144.7 90% 60–92 ✓
Boston College @ Duke +20.6 134.0 91% 49–67 ✓
Ole Miss @ Tennessee +11.3 139.9 87% 66–84 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Illinois State +8.5 138.7 79% 54–50 ✗
VCU @ Fordham -7.9 138.1 24% 63–59 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Dayton +6.3 146.6 76% 70–72 ✓
Western Michigan @ Ohio +5.1 150.0 71% 71–91 ✓
Kent State @ Toledo +2.2 158.6 62% 75–72 ✗
Central Michigan @ Massachusetts +9.3 146.2 85% 89–95 ✓
Ball State @ Bowling Green +11.0 134.5 87% 52–77 ✓
South Carolina @ Texas +11.3 149.9 87% 75–84 ✓
St. John's @ DePaul -8.3 142.2 21% 68–56 ✓
Indiana State @ Evansville -0.4 142.3 48% 84–63 ✓
UIC @ Murray State +5.6 150.4 69% 74–81 ✓
Valparaiso @ Bradley +4.1 139.9 69% 65–72 ✓
La Salle @ Loyola Chicago -2.8 133.9 37% 61–71 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Lindenwood +3.3 132.0 64% 78–72 ✗
Little Rock @ UT Martin +10.2 131.9 86% 52–55 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Virginia +13.1 143.0 88% 47–67 ✓
Saint Louis @ Davidson -10.6 144.3 18% 91–82 ✓
Drake @ Belmont +12.0 150.9 88% 90–103 ✓
Nevada @ Boise State +3.6 145.0 67% 87–91 ✓
NC State @ SMU +2.0 159.1 59% 84–83 ✗
Air Force @ Grand Canyon +20.6 135.5 90% 57–81 ✓
Rutgers @ UCLA +12.4 142.1 88% 66–98 ✓
Indiana @ USC +0.3 148.2 53% 75–81 ✓
UNLV @ Fresno State +2.8 144.8 67% 96–98 ✓
Wyoming @ San Diego State +9.2 140.2 83% 63–72 ✓
Wofford @ VMI -10.2 146.2 16% 81–67 ✓
Western Carolina @ UNC Greensboro -0.3 154.2 49% 78–81 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ UNC Asheville +4.8 135.9 70% 67–76 ✓
Seton Hall @ Villanova +6.3 133.0 71% 60–72 ✓
South Alabama @ App State +3.9 128.6 66% 57–65 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.