Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -26.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | GCU -9000 AF +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +24 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -25.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.8 (+7.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -20.6 (+3.4) | 135.5 (+2.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -20.4 (+3.6) | 137.2 (+0.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -24.7 (-0.7) | 135.0 (+3.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -23.6 (+0.4) | 134.1 (+3.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | GCU 86 – 60 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 3-29 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 0-20 |
| Home | 13-4 | 3-15 |
| Away | 6-5 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L25 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 61.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 79.9 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#71) | -13.6 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#63) | -2.06 (#335) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.03 (#65) | -2.41 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#67) | 0.430 (#304) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 29.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.