Betting Lines
| Spread | MASS -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | MASS -750 CMU +525 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MASS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MASS +6 | 184 | Won |
| Massey | MASS -11.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (+31.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MASS -9.4 (-3.4) | 147.5 (+36.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MASS -9.3 (-3.3) | 146.2 (+37.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MASS -9.4 (-3.4) | 146.7 (+37.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MASS -10.1 (-4.1) | 148.1 (+35.9) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MASS | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-8 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#171) | -8.8 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#161) | -1.43 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#168) | -1.56 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#167) | 0.437 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MASS | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.0% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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