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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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13–6 on winners spread MAE 9.4 19 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Syracuse @ North Carolina	+11.4	150.6	86%	77–87	✓
Florida A&M @ Alabama State	+0.9	138.6	54%	66–79	✓
Boston University @ Holy Cross	+0.7	140.2	50%	72–64	✗
SE Louisiana @ Lamar	+5.4	134.0	72%	54–73	✓
Houston Christian @ UT Rio Grande Valley	+9.8	139.2	83%	57–74	✓
Nicholls @ Northwestern State	+0.6	142.4	52%	61–58	✗
McNeese @ Stephen F. Austin	+2.2	139.1	60%	60–67	✓
New Orleans @ East Texas A&M	-2.2	144.1	42%	94–85	✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alabama A&M	-0.0	142.0	49%	80–62	✓
Southern @ Jackson State	-3.7	147.3	33%	96–91	✓
Grambling @ Alcorn State	-3.4	140.2	34%	74–50	✓
Tennessee Tech @ Tennessee State	+9.5	149.0	84%	90–85	✗
Kansas @ Texas Tech	+3.4	148.7	63%	64–61	✗
Incarnate Word @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+4.7	132.9	70%	71–69	✗
Weber State @ Sacramento State	-1.5	155.6	45%	90–104	✗
Idaho State @ Portland State	+5.6	135.1	75%	65–88	✓
Miami (OH) @ Buffalo	-5.1	164.0	27%	73–71	✓
Akron @ Eastern Michigan	-9.9	150.4	17%	66–64	✓
Canisius @ Niagara	+0.7	124.3	50%	56–65	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.