Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | JKST +195 SOU -238 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JKST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +5 | 187 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -5.7 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.2 (+27.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -4.2 (-0.8) | 148.6 (+38.4) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -3.7 (-1.3) | 147.3 (+39.7) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -3.9 (-1.1) | 147.8 (+39.2) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -4.8 (-0.2) | 150.5 (+36.5) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2025 | SOU 91 – 89 JKST |
| Feb 6, 2024 | SOU 72 – 63 JKST |
| Jan 31, 2023 | SOU 73 – 62 JKST |
| Feb 1, 2022 | SOU 75 – 64 JKST |
| Feb 9, 2021 | JKST 57 – 53 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JKST | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-3 | 8-4 |
| Away | 4-15 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.8 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -17.5 (#359) | -8.8 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#295) | -1.60 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.19 (#310) | -1.81 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#272) | 0.416 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JKST | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 61.2% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 33.9% |
Game Analysis
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