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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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35–9 on winners spread MAE 11.4 85 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
North Carolina @ Kansas	+11.3	149.7	84%	89–92	✓
Northern Kentucky @ Purdue	+11.1	143.4	81%	50–72	✓
Morehead State @ Cincinnati	+25.8	145.8	91%	56–83	✓
Grambling @ Ole Miss	—	—	—	64–66	—
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ Green Bay	—	—	—	90–76	—
Georgia Southern @ UNC Wilmington	—	—	—	84–92	—
William & Mary @ Radford	—	—	—	77–89	—
South Florida @ Charleston	+13.7	150.3	87%	71–86	✓
Davidson @ Bowling Green	—	—	—	91–85	—
Siena @ Bryant	—	—	—	90–88	—
Presbyterian @ NC State	+13.3	149.8	85%	72–81	✓
Holy Cross @ Rhode Island	+19.2	148.0	89%	77–91	✓
Hampton @ George Washington	—	—	—	54–82	—
Murray State @ Pittsburgh	—	—	—	68–83	—
Purdue Fort Wayne @ UCF	—	—	—	68–75	—
South Carolina State @ South Carolina	—	—	—	64–86	—
Western Carolina @ Queens University	—	—	—	54–67	—
Eastern Kentucky @ East Tennessee State	—	—	—	82–78	—
Massachusetts @ West Virginia	+8.4	149.8	78%	69–75	✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Virginia Tech	+16.9	146.7	88%	74–93	✓
Iona @ Hofstra	—	—	—	76–90	—
Saint Francis @ Clemson	+18.8	144.4	88%	62–88	✓
Central Connecticut @ Saint Joseph's	+5.5	135.4	63%	73–67	✗
South Alabama @ Nicholls	+13.3	147.5	85%	70–64	✗
Furman @ Belmont	—	—	—	76–74	—
UL Monroe @ Tulane	—	—	—	64–80	—
Georgia State @ Mississippi State	+17.5	149.1	88%	66–101	✓
Arkansas State @ Alabama	+19.6	152.9	90%	79–88	✓
East Texas A&M @ Texas A&M	+7.4	141.4	76%	55–87	✓
Houston Christian @ Texas	—	—	—	59–90	—
Santa Clara @ Arizona State	+1.8	134.2	56%	74–81	✓
Yale @ UIC	—	—	—	79–91	—
Howard @ Missouri	+9.4	144.2	82%	62–77	✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Maryland	—	—	—	52–86	—
SIU Edwardsville @ Illinois	+19.6	150.0	89%	58–90	✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ TCU	+16.8	145.1	88%	51–67	✓
Princeton @ Duquesne	-1.2	145.0	42%	75–68	✓
Harvard @ Navy	+6.3	142.3	74%	80–85	✓
NJIT @ Villanova	+8.7	133.9	74%	54–91	✓
George Mason @ Marquette	+18.1	147.0	89%	63–82	✓
Northwestern State @ Texas Tech	—	—	—	65–86	—
Northern Colorado @ Colorado	—	—	—	88–90	—
UC Riverside @ BYU	+14.8	146.1	87%	80–86	✓
Long Beach State @ South Dakota State	—	—	—	79–80	—
San José State @ Pacific	—	—	—	67–80	—
Tennessee State @ Colorado State	—	—	—	79–87	—
Boston University @ San Diego	+5.6	140.2	67%	60–74	✓
UC Irvine @ Loyola Marymount	—	—	—	66–51	—
Sacramento State @ Fresno State	—	—	—	57–64	—
Montana @ Oregon	—	—	—	48–79	—
Weber State @ Oregon State	—	—	—	48–76	—
New Mexico @ UCLA	+8.2	147.0	82%	72–64	✗
Bradley @ Washington State	+4.6	150.7	65%	74–91	✓
Tennessee @ Louisville	+12.8	142.4	83%	77–55	✗
Little Rock @ Winthrop	—	—	—	67–82	—
Fordham @ Seton Hall	+9.8	132.0	78%	57–56	✗
Wright State @ Miami (OH)	+18.1	146.1	90%	81–68	✗
Sacred Heart @ Dartmouth	—	—	—	76–81	—
Colgate @ Drexel	—	—	—	56–73	—
Delaware State @ Columbia	+16.1	147.7	88%	62–83	✓
Toledo @ Marshall	—	—	—	90–80	—
Jackson State @ High Point	+25.1	144.9	91%	71–80	✓
Quinnipiac @ St. John's	+18.6	146.4	89%	73–96	✓
Rider @ Coppin State	+1.2	132.0	52%	64–53	✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Tulsa	—	—	—	80–103	—
VMI @ Bellarmine	—	—	—	76–71	—
Morgan State @ Longwood	—	—	—	66–84	—
Omaha @ Minnesota	+8.1	143.4	71%	64–68	✓
Lafayette @ La Salle	+11.2	132.1	80%	60–81	✓
Old Dominion @ Arizona	+17.8	149.8	88%	44–102	✓
Bucknell @ Kentucky	+6.4	149.6	60%	72–100	✓
UTEP @ Utah Valley	—	—	—	60–89	—
Coastal Carolina @ East Carolina	—	—	—	59–63	—
Charlotte @ Utah State	+18.8	152.4	88%	74–103	✓
Fairfield @ Georgetown	+9.9	146.8	81%	57–69	✓
Cleveland State @ Kansas State	+19.6	146.3	89%	64–77	✓
St. Bonaventure @ Canisius	-1.7	140.4	40%	87–78	✓
Troy @ New Orleans	+2.0	148.1	63%	78–61	✗
Wofford @ Lipscomb	—	—	—	69–78	—
Louisiana Tech @ UT Arlington	—	—	—	92–77	—
James Madison @ Norfolk State	—	—	—	69–83	—
UC Santa Barbara @ Portland	—	—	—	94–53	—
Memphis @ UNLV	+10.9	150.3	81%	80–74	✗
Marist @ Richmond	—	—	—	79–72	—
Stonehill @ Providence	+8.6	132.1	76%	49–76	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.