Betting Lines
| Spread | USD -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | USD -140 BU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USD +14 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | USD -15.7 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (-12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USD -7.9 (+6.1) | 139.6 (-5.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USD -5.6 (+8.4) | 140.2 (-6.2) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-27 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 10-8 |
| Home | 5-13 | 12-4 |
| Away | 0-12 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -8.9 (#273) | -8.1 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.34 (#290) | -1.95 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.84 (#286) | -2.79 (#285) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 42.9% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 8.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 71.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 81.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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