Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -24.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 171.5 Under |
| Money | ALA -5000 ARST +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +9 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -33.4 (-24.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (+10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -23.1 (-14.1) | 152.3 (+14.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -19.6 (-10.6) | 152.9 (+14.1) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 5, 2023 | ALA 89 – 65 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 9-3 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 90.7 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#5) | -3.8 (#218) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#65) | 0.38 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#59) | 0.42 (#126) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 63.3% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 44.4% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 55.0 | 44.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.10 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 70.0% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 48.3% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 43.3% | 4.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 31.5% | 41.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.1% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 63.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.0% | 11.4% |
Game Analysis
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