Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | PUR -7500 NKU +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +22 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -15.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (-27.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -14.0 (+8.0) | 143.0 (-21.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -11.1 (+10.9) | 143.4 (-21.4) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#141) | 1.5 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#108) | -0.38 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#98) | -0.49 (#188) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 56.4% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 42.3% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 66.4% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 28.6% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 16.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 34.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.4% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 80.6% | 81.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 10.4% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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