Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -22.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | HPU -20000 JKST +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +9 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -39.9 (-30.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -34.8 (-25.8) | 142.7 (+8.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -25.1 (-16.1) | 144.9 (+6.1) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 14-4 |
| Home | 16-1 | 8-1 |
| Away | 7-3 | 6-15 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.2 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#21) | -13.5 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#129) | -0.38 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#107) | -0.59 (#237) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#18) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 56.4% | 27.7% |
| 3PT% | 50.0% | 17.4% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 25.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.75 | 0.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 69.1% | 31.9% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 31.3% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 35.2% | 67.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 60.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 9.4% | 10.4% |
Game Analysis
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