Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | VT -20000 UPST +2200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +19 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | VT -23.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (+15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -22.3 (-3.3) | 144.3 (+22.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -16.9 (+2.1) | 146.7 (+20.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 2-14 |
| Home | 8-9 | 4-10 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 85.5 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#110) | -4.9 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#121) | -0.38 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#91) | -0.55 (#219) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 33.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 14.3% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 17.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 36.3% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 42.4% | 37.0% |
| FT Rate | 40.0% | 33.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 37.8% | 62.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 58.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 46.9% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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