Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | MARQ -1200 GMU +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +19 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -31.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -21.0 (-2.0) | 143.1 (+1.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -21.9 (-2.9) | 142.6 (+2.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -18.1 (+0.9) | 147.0 (-2.0) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-3 | 18-2 |
| Away | 7-6 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 64.0 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#8) | -3.0 (#199) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#16) | 0.07 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.45 (#14) | 0.04 (#146) |
| RPI | 1.000 (#1) | 0.250 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 58.8% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 11.8% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 48.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 18.0 |
| AST / TO | 3.14 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 65.4% | 43.1% |
| TOV% | 10.0% | 24.5% |
| ORB% | 41.9% | 52.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 60.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.5% | 32.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 36.8% |
Game Analysis
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