Blood in the streets in the town of New Haven "Peace Frog" - The Doors
John Glaser Arena · November 9, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread LAS -8.5 Home covered
O/U 132.5 Over
Money LAS -425 / LAF +320
Model Predictions
Spread Total LAS win
Actual LAS +21 141 Won
Massey LAS -16.5 (+4.5)
Massey Totals 131.7 (+9.3)
Bradley-Terry 98%
Weighted B-T 99%
Baseline ML LAS -14.1 (+6.9) 130.2 (+10.8) 82%
Baseline Tuned ML LAS -11.2 (+9.8) 132.1 (+8.9) 80%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 9, 2023 LAS 6751 LAF
Dec 21, 2022 LAF 9065 LAS

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LAS LAF
Overall 14-19 13-20
Conference 5-13 7-11
Home 10-5 10-6
Away 2-10 3-14
Neutral 2-4 0-0
Last 5 1-0 0-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.9 67.8
Avg Pts Against 75.5 69.7
Massey -1.1 (#167) -1.2 (#169)
Bradley-Terry 0.38 (#88) -0.84 (#260)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.50 (#105) -1.34 (#259)
RPI 0.250 (#69)
Shooting & Four Factors LAS LAF
FG% 41.8% 40.7%
3PT% 31.2% 35.0%
REB / G 40.0 25.0
OREB / G 12.0 9.0
AST / TO 1.00 1.50
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.4% 46.6%
TOV% 12.0% 17.7%
ORB% 35.3% 24.3%
FT Rate 25.5% 13.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.5% 55.0%
Opp TOV% 16.7% 24.6%
DRB% 75.7% 55.2%
Opp FT Rate 5.5% 15.0%

Game Analysis

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