Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | MSST -4000 GAST +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +35 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -26.4 (+8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (+19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -17.5 (+17.5) | 149.1 (+17.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -18.6 (+16.4) | 142.7 (+24.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 15, 2021 | MSST 79 – 50 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-5 | 9-6 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 78.7 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#44) | -3.8 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#136) | 0.38 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#120) | 0.42 (#129) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 55.4% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 46.7% | 18.2% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 49.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.38 | 2.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 66.2% | 43.1% |
| TOV% | 11.0% | 8.9% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 13.8% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.6% | 38.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.2% | 8.8% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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