Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -28.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +28 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | UK -10.2 (+17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.6 (+18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UK -5.4 (+22.6) | 146.1 (+25.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -6.4 (+21.6) | 149.6 (+22.4) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-3 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.4 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#27) | 14.4 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#87) | 3.03 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#65) | 4.26 (#3) |
| RPI | — | 0.688 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 60.0% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 45.8% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 41.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 4.29 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 68.5% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 9.5% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 37.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.0% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 78.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.2% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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