Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -22.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | VILL -3000 NJIT +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +37 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -19.6 (+17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (+8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -8.4 (+28.6) | 131.8 (+13.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -11.5 (+25.5) | 135.5 (+9.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -8.7 (+28.3) | 133.9 (+11.1) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | NJIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 3-13 |
| Home | 14-3 | 4-9 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -6.8 (#254) | -9.9 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#261) | -1.92 (#279) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#261) | -2.24 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.700 (#15) | 0.500 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | NJIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 37.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 43.5% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 42.6% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 37.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 42.9% |
Game Analysis
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