Betting Lines
| Spread | CLEM -29.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLEM +26 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | CLEM -24.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (+1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CLEM -23.2 (+2.8) | 144.0 (+6.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLEM -18.8 (+7.2) | 144.4 (+5.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLEM | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 8-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 9-3 | 6-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#76) | -4.5 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#126) | -0.38 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#92) | -0.55 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#18) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLEM | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 37.9% |
| 3PT% | 52.4% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.29 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.7% | 43.1% |
| TOV% | 9.9% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 13.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 12.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.8% | 10.0% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 58.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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