Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -21.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | NCSU -7500 PRES +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +9 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -18.8 (-9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -17.9 (-8.9) | 150.1 (+2.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -13.3 (-4.3) | 149.8 (+3.2) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 7-9 |
| Home | 12-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 0-11 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#62) | 2.5 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#95) | -0.38 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#76) | -0.47 (#184) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 55.9% | 56.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 42.9% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 62.5% | 64.0% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 41.2% | 40.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 10.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.3% | 67.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 7.9% |
| DRB% | 63.0% | 80.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.9% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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