Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -26.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -100000 SIUE +4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +32 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -26.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.4 (-8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -23.5 (+8.5) | 146.8 (+1.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -19.6 (+12.4) | 150.0 (-2.0) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 9.5 (#23) | -0.9 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#82) | -0.38 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#63) | -0.52 (#199) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 35.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 19.2% |
| REB / G | 58.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.9% | 38.7% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 38.9% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 53.1% | 8.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.2% | 57.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 9.8% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 88.0% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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