Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -33.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +58 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -26.4 (+31.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -21.4 (+36.6) | 150.2 (-4.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -17.8 (+40.2) | 149.8 (-3.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | ODU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 15-20 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-3 | 7-9 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.5 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 72.8 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#71) | -5.8 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#66) | -1.95 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#81) | -2.25 (#280) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | ODU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 46.0 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 22.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.22 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 12.4% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 45.9% | 47.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 5.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 64.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.7% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 83.9% | 82.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 15.8% |
Game Analysis
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