I don't know why I let that mean woman make me a fool. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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27–11 on winners spread MAE 10.6 38 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Duquesne @ Dayton +4.9 135.6 70% 65–57 ✗
Delaware State @ South Carolina State +0.5 138.1 54% 71–58 ✗
Stanford @ Washington State +5.9 143.3 72% 62–79 ✓
Penn State @ Indiana -0.5 144.6 48% 59–61 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Rider -0.7 130.3 48% 50–48 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Hawai'i +2.7 140.9 61% 68–75 ✓
California Baptist @ Seattle U +3.0 129.2 61% 57–81 ✓
New Mexico State @ Western Kentucky +6.6 143.9 75% 69–89 ✓
Temple @ SMU +9.5 139.5 82% 75–60 ✗
Colorado State @ Nevada +0.7 137.3 55% 85–78 ✗
Villanova @ Marquette +4.0 136.6 66% 65–71 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Southern +2.4 133.6 58% 73–58 ✗
Boston College @ Virginia +0.8 126.4 51% 60–66 ✓
Cincinnati @ Baylor +2.1 145.8 57% 56–68 ✓
Georgia @ Florida +6.0 152.4 74% 80–85 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ UT Arlington +2.8 142.7 60% 78–109 ✓
Utah @ Colorado +0.9 151.1 53% 58–72 ✓
UC Riverside @ Long Beach State +0.9 146.2 52% 67–86 ✓
New Mexico @ Boise State -0.9 149.4 46% 76–66 ✓
Michigan State @ Purdue +7.5 138.8 77% 62–67 ✓
UTEP @ Sam Houston +2.6 134.6 62% 65–63 ✗
Mississippi State @ Tennessee +7.4 141.3 78% 73–56 ✗
East Carolina @ South Florida +8.1 137.8 80% 59–81 ✓
Wisconsin @ Northwestern -1.6 140.4 44% 70–61 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Grambling +1.3 133.8 55% 53–65 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Western Kentucky +5.5 144.4 71% 54–85 ✓
Wichita State @ UAB +2.3 147.2 61% 60–72 ✓
South Carolina @ Auburn +7.4 143.8 74% 55–86 ✓
Kent State @ Bowling Green -1.9 139.1 42% 73–60 ✓
St. John's @ UConn +12.2 149.5 85% 90–95 ✓
Howard @ Norfolk State +2.6 141.9 62% 80–74 ✗
Ohio State @ Illinois +3.6 150.0 64% 74–77 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Quinnipiac +2.8 132.6 62% 62–60 ✗
Texas Tech @ Houston +7.6 128.6 79% 59–82 ✓
Pittsburgh @ North Carolina +5.0 145.7 70% 65–72 ✓
Texas A&M @ Kentucky +2.8 157.6 63% 97–87 ✗
North Texas @ Florida Atlantic +4.3 139.9 68% 71–77 ✓
Ohio @ Akron +1.2 138.3 55% 62–65 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.