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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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23–11 on winners spread MAE 9.3 34 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Oregon @ Arizona	+11.6	155.2	84%	67–59	✗
Delaware State @ North Carolina Central	+3.3	142.1	64%	71–58	✗
Providence @ Marquette	+4.9	140.6	71%	68–79	✓
Long Beach State @ UC Irvine	+9.1	148.7	81%	83–79	✗
Seattle U @ Grand Canyon	+6.5	135.6	75%	72–80	✓
Indiana @ Nebraska	+5.2	139.9	68%	66–93	✓
Marist @ Fairfield	+2.7	128.7	63%	61–65	✓
Baylor @ Iowa State	+1.5	138.5	55%	62–76	✓
Florida @ Alabama	+3.1	173.5	63%	102–88	✗
Alabama A&M @ Texas Southern	+5.0	137.1	70%	65–72	✓
NC State @ Virginia	-0.6	128.3	50%	73–65	✓
San Diego State @ Utah State	-1.5	140.7	44%	86–70	✓
Temple @ Charlotte	+5.2	132.6	70%	58–54	✗
Colorado @ Washington State	-2.1	141.1	39%	58–52	✓
UT Arlington @ Tarleton State	-1.3	145.7	45%	87–84	✓
Hawai'i @ UC Davis	+0.1	136.5	49%	65–68	✓
Colorado State @ New Mexico	+2.0	146.6	57%	61–74	✓
UMass Lowell @ Vermont	+6.3	135.4	77%	61–66	✓
Brown @ Princeton	+9.8	142.2	81%	90–81	✗
Wisconsin @ Purdue	+6.1	147.0	75%	76–75	✗
Mississippi State @ Auburn	+6.1	145.4	74%	66–73	✓
Delaware State @ Howard	+1.9	141.5	60%	67–70	✓
Saint Joseph's @ VCU	+0.1	138.9	48%	60–66	✓
Cornell @ Yale	+0.6	148.7	53%	57–69	✓
UAB @ South Florida	+3.3	145.9	64%	93–83	✗
St. Bonaventure @ Duquesne	+0.9	134.7	56%	60–70	✓
Texas A&M @ Florida	+0.7	153.6	55%	90–95	✓
Nebraska @ Illinois	+2.2	152.6	59%	87–98	✓
Temple @ Florida Atlantic	+12.5	148.0	85%	74–73	✗
New Mexico @ San Diego State	-0.4	144.2	48%	68–61	✓
Iowa State @ Houston	+4.3	125.2	69%	69–41	✗
Marquette @ UConn	+4.8	146.8	70%	57–73	✓
Saint Peter's @ Fairfield	+1.8	128.0	59%	68–63	✗
Kent State @ Akron	+3.4	138.0	65%	61–62	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.