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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
6–5 on winners
spread MAE 8.9
11 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NC State
@
North Carolina
|
+7.6 | 149.4 | 78% | 84–76 | ✗ |
UTEP
@
Western Kentucky
|
+2.1 | 144.1 | 59% | 71–78 | ✓ |
Oregon
@
Colorado
|
+3.8 | 142.2 | 66% | 75–68 | ✗ |
Texas Southern
@
Grambling
|
-1.6 | 131.7 | 44% | 66–75 | ✗ |
Long Beach State
@
UC Davis
|
+0.1 | 144.5 | 51% | 74–70 | ✗ |
UT Arlington
@
Grand Canyon
|
+5.8 | 146.4 | 73% | 74–89 | ✓ |
Brown
@
Yale
|
+7.7 | 140.6 | 78% | 61–62 | ✓ |
Florida
@
Auburn
|
+5.5 | 161.1 | 70% | 67–86 | ✓ |
Duquesne
@
VCU
|
+0.3 | 130.8 | 49% | 57–51 | ✗ |
Temple
@
UAB
|
+4.2 | 144.9 | 71% | 69–85 | ✓ |
Wisconsin
@
Illinois
|
+1.0 | 152.2 | 57% | 87–93 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.