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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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25–8 on winners spread MAE 8.2 33 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Purdue @ Maryland	-8.2	142.5	18%	67–53	✓
Norfolk State @ Tennessee	+18.6	140.0	90%	50–87	✓
North Carolina @ Pittsburgh	+1.6	149.1	59%	70–57	✗
East Carolina @ Florida Atlantic	+16.2	147.0	90%	64–79	✓
Iowa @ Wisconsin	+7.2	153.8	77%	72–83	✓
Wake Forest @ Boston College	+1.6	150.7	58%	84–78	✗
Creighton @ Georgetown	-10.2	145.0	21%	77–60	✓
Ball State @ Kent State	+8.9	144.4	82%	69–82	✓
Buffalo @ Central Michigan	+3.1	139.0	63%	76–64	✗
Eastern Michigan @ Bowling Green	+10.0	136.6	85%	90–92	✓
Western Michigan @ Miami (OH)	+5.2	148.6	71%	83–74	✗
Toledo @ Ohio	+1.6	155.1	57%	86–77	✗
UAlbany @ Harvard	+5.7	147.8	73%	71–76	✓
Vermont @ Brown	-2.8	135.6	30%	71–70	✓
Cornell @ Baylor	+14.1	161.9	86%	79–98	✓
UIC @ Murray State	-3.0	137.3	39%	73–85	✗
Belmont @ Southern Illinois	+9.2	146.1	81%	63–73	✓
Chicago State @ Kansas State	+14.6	136.5	88%	55–62	✓
Akron @ Northern Illinois	-2.2	146.5	42%	73–51	✓
San José State @ Wyoming	+2.7	144.7	65%	73–75	✓
Butler @ St. John's	+4.8	151.5	71%	70–86	✓
Northwestern @ Illinois	+11.3	140.5	85%	66–96	✓
Syracuse @ Duke	+11.9	150.5	85%	66–86	✓
Pennsylvania @ Auburn	+19.2	153.3	90%	68–88	✓
Charlotte @ SMU	+11.0	136.8	84%	54–66	✓
UAB @ UTSA	+0.5	156.8	52%	78–76	✗
Illinois State @ Drake	+12.9	137.5	88%	71–88	✓
New Mexico @ Colorado State	+6.0	151.6	71%	68–76	✓
Yale @ Howard	-0.4	144.6	45%	86–78	✓
South Carolina Upstate @ UNC Asheville	+5.7	143.1	72%	67–95	✓
Seton Hall @ Providence	+6.7	138.0	78%	61–57	✗
Longwood @ Winthrop	+0.7	138.5	57%	60–68	✓
George Mason @ La Salle	-3.1	144.2	37%	77–62	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.