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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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29–4 on winners spread MAE 8.0 33 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Houston @ Tulane	-11.1	142.7	16%	80–60	✓
Kansas @ Kansas State	+0.3	148.9	54%	82–83	✓
Tennessee @ Mississippi State	-6.6	122.1	25%	70–59	✓
UIC @ Valparaiso	+0.7	139.1	55%	66–76	✓
NC State @ Georgia Tech	-5.9	144.6	27%	78–66	✓
Florida State @ Notre Dame	+5.0	143.4	72%	84–71	✗
Boston College @ North Carolina	+15.2	146.8	89%	64–72	✓
Creighton @ Butler	-1.3	141.8	47%	73–52	✓
Rhode Island @ Richmond	+7.2	131.7	77%	57–64	✓
Davidson @ Dayton	+11.3	130.5	83%	61–68	✓
Massachusetts @ VCU	+5.9	143.7	75%	55–83	✓
Ohio @ Toledo	+5.1	158.1	73%	75–90	✓
Kent State @ Eastern Michigan	-14.1	145.8	13%	77–63	✓
Akron @ Central Michigan	-7.0	134.1	25%	69–51	✓
Bowling Green @ Buffalo	+2.6	158.0	65%	71–100	✓
Western Michigan @ Ball State	+11.5	149.9	88%	70–71	✓
Northern Illinois @ Miami (OH)	+1.8	144.1	61%	81–77	✗
Texas @ Iowa State	+3.7	132.0	68%	67–78	✓
Evansville @ Southern Illinois	+13.6	130.4	89%	70–77	✓
Alabama @ Vanderbilt	-7.9	157.2	21%	78–66	✓
Penn State @ Wisconsin	+1.8	131.5	59%	60–63	✓
Clemson @ Wake Forest	+2.7	151.7	61%	77–87	✓
Baylor @ Texas Tech	-0.1	146.3	47%	81–74	✓
Murray State @ Belmont	+4.5	144.5	73%	65–80	✓
Georgia @ Kentucky	+5.8	137.0	72%	71–85	✓
Wyoming @ Air Force	+4.5	135.3	71%	74–82	✓
UNLV @ Utah State	+6.2	151.2	74%	71–75	✓
San José State @ New Mexico	+10.0	143.4	84%	57–77	✓
Nevada @ Boise State	+5.7	134.3	71%	62–77	✓
Bucknell @ Army	+7.2	144.9	78%	68–66	✗
UMBC @ UMass Lowell	+3.7	152.1	68%	75–81	✓
Hartford @ Morgan State	+16.0	142.0	90%	84–92	✓
UConn @ Seton Hall	-2.1	137.0	41%	66–67	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.