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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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18–5 on winners spread MAE 6.7 23 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Syracuse @ Miami	+7.8	151.8	79%	78–82	✓
Florida Atlantic @ Western Kentucky	-5.3	138.9	27%	76–62	✓
Lehigh @ Loyola Maryland	-1.4	134.8	42%	74–70	✓
North Texas @ Florida International	-7.6	131.1	20%	64–57	✓
Princeton @ Pennsylvania	-0.9	143.3	46%	72–60	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Stonehill	-0.2	152.1	50%	65–57	✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Long Island University	-4.4	138.6	25%	73–66	✓
Cleveland State @ Purdue Fort Wayne	+2.7	138.5	67%	72–60	✗
North Carolina A&T @ Hampton	-4.1	146.6	30%	79–67	✓
Elon @ UNC Wilmington	+13.3	137.6	87%	54–62	✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Bethune-Cookman	-1.5	140.7	41%	77–71	✓
Wagner @ Merrimack	-1.1	121.5	43%	62–57	✓
Rice @ UTSA	-4.3	155.6	30%	88–81	✓
Cal Poly @ UC Riverside	+8.9	131.4	82%	78–83	✓
Jackson State @ Texas Southern	+1.3	142.0	57%	82–84	✓
Alcorn State @ Prairie View A&M	+1.5	139.7	61%	77–68	✗
UAB @ Middle Tennessee	-1.5	150.4	45%	73–74	✗
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Irvine	+5.6	138.0	71%	73–65	✗
Montana State @ Idaho	-7.1	137.7	22%	70–74	✗
Montana @ Eastern Washington	+2.7	145.1	68%	57–64	✓
Cal State Northridge @ Hawai'i	+10.7	128.6	85%	51–58	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal State Fullerton	+8.2	130.4	79%	46–76	✓
Ole Miss @ South Carolina	-6.5	134.0	29%	70–58	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.