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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
24–7 on winners
spread MAE 8.6
31 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Stephen F. Austin
@
Louisiana Tech
|
+5.0 | 151.0 | 70% | 80–79 | ✗ |
Eastern Kentucky
@
Northern Kentucky
|
+4.3 | 139.6 | 68% | 61–64 | ✓ |
Wright State
@
Akron
|
+7.5 | 142.6 | 76% | 54–66 | ✓ |
Stetson
@
Charleston
|
+12.9 | 152.9 | 85% | 60–65 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Cincinnati
|
+17.1 | 152.2 | 88% | 76–103 | ✓ |
Coastal Carolina
@
South Dakota
|
+2.2 | 136.6 | 59% | 87–86 | ✗ |
Morehead State
@
Georgia Southern
|
+6.1 | 134.2 | 73% | 74–71 | ✗ |
Radford
@
VCU
|
+4.1 | 136.9 | 66% | 62–70 | ✓ |
Long Island University
@
UAlbany
|
+9.9 | 146.3 | 83% | 59–76 | ✓ |
Queens University
@
East Tennessee State
|
-3.5 | 138.8 | 31% | 78–75 | ✓ |
DePaul
@
Duquesne
|
+3.8 | 153.1 | 68% | 55–66 | ✓ |
Drexel
@
Seton Hall
|
+10.0 | 132.1 | 81% | 49–66 | ✓ |
South Carolina
@
UAB
|
+18.4 | 147.3 | 90% | 70–84 | ✓ |
Ohio
@
Florida
|
+6.3 | 145.5 | 71% | 48–82 | ✓ |
App State
@
Wake Forest
|
+12.1 | 146.3 | 85% | 66–67 | ✓ |
Mississippi State
@
Jackson State
|
-17.3 | 130.6 | 12% | 69–59 | ✓ |
Sam Houston
@
UL Monroe
|
-11.4 | 130.8 | 16% | 79–53 | ✓ |
UCF
@
Ole Miss
|
+6.7 | 132.1 | 71% | 72–61 | ✗ |
Georgia State
@
Auburn
|
+18.0 | 133.1 | 89% | 64–72 | ✓ |
Charleston Southern
@
Tennessee State
|
+6.1 | 146.1 | 71% | 91–87 | ✗ |
Southeast Missouri State
@
Arkansas State
|
+0.9 | 133.6 | 51% | 61–68 | ✓ |
Bowling Green
@
Norfolk State
|
+5.8 | 144.7 | 73% | 75–81 | ✓ |
Tennessee Tech
@
Lipscomb
|
+9.5 | 148.2 | 80% | 63–64 | ✓ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Minnesota
|
+6.0 | 138.6 | 71% | 56–72 | ✓ |
UCLA
@
Maryland
|
+4.5 | 139.4 | 68% | 87–60 | ✗ |
UC Riverside
@
Oregon
|
+10.4 | 137.6 | 82% | 65–71 | ✓ |
Western Kentucky
@
Louisville
|
-8.6 | 132.7 | 18% | 83–94 | ✗ |
New Mexico State
@
Saint Mary's
|
+10.7 | 135.3 | 82% | 68–81 | ✓ |
UC San Diego
@
Nevada
|
+16.7 | 136.6 | 89% | 56–64 | ✓ |
Long Beach State
@
USC
|
+6.7 | 142.4 | 73% | 78–88 | ✓ |
Elon
@
Presbyterian
|
+6.0 | 132.7 | 69% | 63–69 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.