Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -13.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
| Money | FLA -1100 OHIO +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +34 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -7.1 (+26.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (-19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -7.2 (+26.8) | 146.7 (-16.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -5.1 (+28.9) | 144.4 (-14.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -6.3 (+27.7) | 145.5 (-15.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -7.6 (+26.4) | 146.5 (-16.5) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-6 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 74.0 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#63) | 0.9 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#128) | 0.49 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#111) | 0.69 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#146) | 0.485 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 13.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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