Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | MD +100 UCLA +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +27 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | MD -2.1 (-29.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -3.2 (-30.2) | 138.5 (+8.5) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -4.5 (-31.5) | 139.4 (+7.6) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MD -3.9 (-30.9) | 140.0 (+7.0) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -3.8 (-30.8) | 140.0 (+7.0) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | UCLA 67 – 55 MD |
| Jan 11, 2025 | MD 79 – 61 UCLA |
| Dec 23, 2023 | MD 69 – 60 UCLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 31-6 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 18-2 |
| Home | 16-1 | 17-0 |
| Away | 2-9 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.5 | 60.7 |
| Massey | 13.7 (#17) | 16.8 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#17) | 1.56 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.09 (#14) | 2.17 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.622 (#27) | 0.590 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 49.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.8% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 25.2% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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