Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | NEV -900 UCSD +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +8 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -21.8 (-13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.6 (-10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -15.5 (-7.5) | 135.9 (-15.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -16.7 (-8.7) | 136.6 (-16.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -18.5 (-10.5) | 136.5 (-16.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEV -18.8 (-10.8) | 135.2 (-15.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2025 | NEV 76 – 70 UCSD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-1 | 4-10 |
| Away | 6-7 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#57) | -7.8 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#48) | -0.83 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#58) | -1.18 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.622 (#26) | 0.435 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 34.3% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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