Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | NEV -258 UCSD +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEV +6 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -0.3 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.9 (-17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEV -1.7 (+4.3) | 151.3 (-5.3) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEV -0.0 (+6.0) | 151.1 (-5.1) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NEV -0.8 (+5.2) | 153.2 (-7.2) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -0.1 (+6.1) | 150.7 (-4.7) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 15, 2022 | NEV 64 – 56 UCSD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEV | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 12-8 |
| Home | 17-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-9 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#125) | 8.9 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#109) | 3.29 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#111) | 4.83 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#47) | 0.668 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEV | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 52.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 42.7% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 62.9% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 35.9% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.2% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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