Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | USC -700 LBSU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +10 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | USC -8.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (+21.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -7.0 (+3.0) | 144.3 (+21.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -6.7 (+3.3) | 142.4 (+23.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -6.9 (+3.1) | 142.1 (+23.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -6.9 (+3.1) | 142.7 (+23.3) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2023 | LBSU 84 – 79 USC |
| Dec 12, 2021 | USC 73 – 62 LBSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-2 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 75.7 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#105) | 0.6 (#167) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#116) | 0.14 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#134) | 0.58 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#143) | 0.489 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | LBSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 16.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.0% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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