Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | TNST -225 CHSO +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CHSO +4 | 178 | Lost |
| Massey | TNST -8.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (+32.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -6.6 (-10.6) | 145.8 (+32.2) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -6.8 (-10.8) | 146.3 (+31.7) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -6.1 (-10.1) | 146.1 (+31.9) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -6.2 (-10.2) | 146.4 (+31.6) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2021 | TNST 78 – 75 CHSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-4 | 6-8 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#253) | -8.1 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#239) | -2.19 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#249) | -2.56 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#283) | 0.408 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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