Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | SMC -900 NMSU +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +13 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -12.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.4 (+17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -11.2 (+1.8) | 135.7 (+13.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -10.4 (+2.6) | 132.1 (+16.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -10.7 (+2.3) | 135.3 (+13.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -11.0 (+2.0) | 135.9 (+13.1) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 9-15 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 2-16 |
| Home | 16-2 | 6-7 |
| Away | 6-2 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.0 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 13.8 (#16) | 6.5 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#41) | 0.98 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.05 (#30) | 1.53 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#28) | 0.589 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 41.0% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 79.0% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
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