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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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25–2 on winners spread MAE 7.5 27 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
UNC Asheville @ South Carolina State	-1.5	156.7	41%	94–84	✓
UMBC @ Loyola Maryland	-1.0	141.4	43%	72–69	✓
Marshall @ UNC Greensboro	-5.5	133.9	24%	67–75	✗
UMass Lowell @ Rhode Island	-5.8	135.9	25%	75–77	✗
Princeton @ Iona	+1.9	141.7	59%	64–70	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Richmond	+11.5	145.7	86%	48–77	✓
Dartmouth @ Boston University	+9.1	140.1	82%	59–67	✓
North Carolina Central @ LSU	+7.6	141.7	78%	57–67	✓
Southern @ Xavier	+15.8	153.4	88%	59–79	✓
The Citadel @ North Carolina	+18.0	149.0	89%	67–100	✓
Stonehill @ Boston College	+5.4	138.8	69%	56–63	✓
Saint Peter's @ Hartford	-4.6	129.6	26%	58–57	✓
North Carolina A&T @ Houston	+25.7	129.9	91%	46–74	✓
Prairie View A&M @ UIC	+3.3	136.3	61%	61–70	✓
Chicago State @ Murray State	+10.1	144.1	83%	65–66	✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Wichita State	+21.6	132.1	90%	48–71	✓
Florida International @ Howard	+0.4	146.5	50%	59–71	✓
Green Bay @ St. Thomas	+14.9	142.0	89%	61–82	✓
Southern Miss @ Lamar	-12.0	141.3	16%	91–65	✓
Eastern Washington @ Texas Tech	+13.0	137.2	87%	70–77	✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Arizona	+15.9	160.2	88%	61–99	✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Florida State	+6.7	143.4	72%	63–80	✓
Memphis @ Alabama	+12.7	151.6	86%	88–91	✓
LSU New Orleans @ Boise State	+23.4	137.7	91%	50–91	✓
UTSA @ Utah	+22.3	143.8	91%	70–91	✓
Portland State @ Santa Clara	+6.6	155.1	78%	75–78	✓
Cal Poly @ Washington	+7.4	132.5	77%	68–74	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.