Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -26.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -4000 CIT +2200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +33 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -22.8 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (+19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -18.0 (+15.0) | 149.0 (+18.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -19.9 (+13.1) | 149.0 (+18.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -18.5 (+14.5) | 148.9 (+18.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -19.6 (+13.4) | 147.3 (+19.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-3 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#38) | -6.8 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#42) | -0.40 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.84 (#39) | -0.72 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.634 (#18) | 0.475 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 20.5% |
| FT Rate | 33.2% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.4% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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