Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | MUR -800 CHST +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +1 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -12.2 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (-16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -10.1 (-9.1) | 144.1 (-13.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -13.9 (-12.9) | 144.1 (-13.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -10.7 (-9.7) | 144.1 (-13.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -10.6 (-9.6) | 144.6 (-13.6) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 0-0 |
| Home | 11-2 | 8-0 |
| Away | 3-11 | 3-20 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#151) | -5.8 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#132) | -0.89 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#129) | -1.03 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#142) | 0.425 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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